Marion King Hubbert generated prescient and unwelcome forecasts in 1956 and again in 1962, that annual U. S. crude oil production would peak in the late 1960s or early 1970s at around 3 billion barrels, and decline thereafter, implying growing American dependence on imported oil. These forecasts brought him into sharp conflict with the U. S. Geological Survey’s Vincent E. McKelvey throughout the 1960s, and continuing well into the 1970s. The debate reached well beyond the American scientific community and spilled over into national energy policy.
Examined from the vantage point of 60 years of experience, all of Hubbert’s forecasts are clearly too pessimistic, primarily because he failed to anticipate that technological breakthroughs would make oil exploration and production in hostile environments possible, and that new drilling and stimulation technologies would allow reservoirs to be developed in rocks then thought to be incapable of production.
The recognition that the world is not running out of oil has changed U. S energy policy, as well as cancelling one of the greatest arguments for the “Green Energy” revolution.
Dr. Pete Rose has been a professional geologist for 58 years. Specializing in petroleum geology, exploration & production risk analysis, and mineral economics. Pete’s 2001 book, Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures, now in its 7th printing, is considered by many as the “Bible” on that topic, and has been translated into Chinese, Japanese, and Russian. He has authored or co-authored more than 80 published articles on a wide variety of geological topics. In 2013, the Geological Society of London awarded Dr. Rose its prestigious Petroleum Group Medal for lifetime contributions to Petroleum Geology, the first American to be so recognized.
Featured Lunch Meal $12:
Optional Lunch Meal $12:
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